New Delhi, Oct 9 (IANS): While Pakistan has stepped up its military presence in Saudi Arabia and is actively assisting the Gulf kingdom in the war in Yemen as part of the recently forged Makkah Alliance, Islamabad’s strategy driven by Field Marshal Asim Munir does not appear to be sustainable, according to a new report.
Pakistan’s plunge into the war in Yemen is a case of “fiscal and strategic overreach.” The country’s external accounts are held together by an IMF programme, rolled-over Gulf deposits and remittances from the same Gulf that is now a war zone. The deployment deepens both problems at once. It consumes equipment and formations the eastern front and two domestic insurgencies already claim, and it pulls a mediator into the shooting war it has been trying to keep at arm’s length, according to an article by Andrew Wilson in One World Outlook.
A Reuters report, in May this year, cited Pakistani security and government sources as saying that Islamabad had sent about 8,000 troops, a squadron of roughly 16 aircraft, mostly JF-17s, two drone squadrons and a Chinese HQ-9 air-defence battery, with Riyadh financing the package and Pakistani crews operating it. Those sources said the confidential text contemplated up to 80,000 troops. Islamabad has not confirmed the figures. It has confirmed the presence, including jets at King Abdulaziz Air Base from April.
However, the article highlights that Saudi money can pay stipends and operating costs. It cannot replace a squadron or an air-defence battery on the Indian border ormanufacture the political room to use them in Yemen.
It underscores that Pakistan’s budget cannot sustain this extra military expenditure. For FY2026–27, the federal government allocated PKR 3 trillion to defence services, about $10.8 billion, an 18 percent rise on the original PKR 2.55 trillion and roughly 2.1 percent of projected GDP. That is about 16 percent of a federal outlay of PKR 18.8 trillion. Military pensions sit outside that line, budgeted separately at PKR 822 billion. Markup on debt, at about PKR 8 trillion, is more than two and a half times the defence allocation.
The article points out that Pakistan is surviving on IMF loans. The country has to meet the IMF conditions while availing these funds, which include a primary surplus of 2 percent of GDP and continued restraint on development spending. This does not leave any space for an unallocated war budget.
Growth in FY26 is estimated to be around 3.6 to 3.7 percent. Inflation, after the energy shock, was still about 10.3 percent in September. Reserves of roughly $21.5 billion at end-September are an improvement on the 2023 trough and still only a few months of imports.
“Gulf cash is what makes the restraint look manageable, and it is the same Gulf now under fire. Pakistan holds about $8 billion in Saudi deposits at the central bank. In July, the State Bank said Riyadh had rolled $5 billion of that to December 2028, which cut the year’s external financing need to $21.5 billion — still $21.5 billion, of which cash deposits and commercial loans are a large share. A further $3 billion deposit was extended in the spring. This is relief, not independence,” the article observes.
