New Delhi, Sep 29 (IANS) : Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) tweaked its operational strategy regarding India, choosing to prioritise widespread radicalisation and proxy recruitment over immediate, large-scale terror attacks, according to intelligence reports.
Security assessments indicate that Islamabad seeks to avoid major cross-border strikes that could provoke direct military retaliation while it attempts to project itself as a regional peacemaker on the global stage.
Pakistan has boasted of its ties with the United States and also sought to score brownie points by signing the Mecca Pact recently.
While Islamabad has managed to control the narrative to a certain extent, at home the situation has gone from bad to worse courtesy of security-related concerns and a failing economy.
Assessments by intelligence agencies suggest that while Pakistan has been actively plotting terror attacks against India, it is likely to avoid carrying out a major attack at this stage.
“The current priority of the dispensation in Pakistan is to focus on international relations rather than get drawn into trouble by carrying out an attack on Indian soil,” the IB official said.
The ISI is only looking at smaller attacks to keep the ship sailing. Moreover, it is focusing heavily on recruitment and propaganda across India. It has also been encouraging the setting up of home-grown terror modules in India.
“This is not just about Pakistan wanting to retain the deniability factor, but also about projecting itself as an international player and a global peacemaker,” the official added.
The officials, however, warn that while Pakistan may not be planning a major attack at present, security agencies must not lose sight of the large-scale radicalisation activities being planned by the ISI.
Over the past eight months, the ISI has been setting the field for widespread radicalisation across India.
Every attempt would be made to ensure that there is an uptick in radicalisation activity in the country, the official added.
Another official said that Islamabad and Rawalpindi are not thinking short-term. “They do not want to boost terror activities to a very large extent. In addition to driving radicalisation activity, it is also actively trying to build up a proxy network in Jammu and Kashmir,” the official said.
These proxy networks that the ISI is looking to create are not meant to carry out attacks in the near future in Jammu and Kashmir. In case of a full-blown escalation, which Pakistan sees taking place in the next three years, it would want these proxies to wage the battle against the Indian security forces rather than engaging its own army, the official added.
Pakistan may not be planning a major attack in India in the near future. However, officials say it is likely to continue backing proxy groups, increasing smuggling activity, expanding counterfeiting operations, and focusing heavily on recruitment and widespread radicalisation.
Another official explained that carrying out a major attack on Indian soil could derail Pakistan’s long-term plans. “Such an attack could also trigger a response similar to Operation Sindoor,” the official said.
Instead, Pakistan would focus on a strategy of slowly bleeding India while training lakhs of Lashkar-e-Taiba and Jaish-e-Mohammed operatives and preparing them for combat. Islamabad would seek to keep its army out of any possible direct conflict with India and instead rely on lakhs of mujahideen being trained to wage a proxy war against the country.
Pakistan feels that this, coupled with widespread radicalisation within India, would give it the upper hand in case of a full-blown escalation. The radicalised youth would back Pakistan, and they would run the narrative in favour of Islamabad. Moreover, getting the mujahideen to fight India instead of the army also keeps Pakistan safe from international pressure.
This, Pakistan feels, would help in bleeding India, while also maintaining its image on the global stage, another official said.
